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Prediction for CME (2024-05-15T08:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-15T08:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30891/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen due West in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is EUV wave seen beyond the SW limb starting at 2024-05-15T08:18Z in SDO AIA 171/193. Widely opening field lines with northern deflection seen on or just beyond the SW limb at an apparent latitude of S15 (before deflection). This CME overlaps heavily with CME: 2024-05-15T08:48Z. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial Bt increase from 6nT->14nT, eventually increasing to almost 17nT at 2024-05-17T14:04Z. There is a jump in solar wind speed from 400 to 490 km/s and an increase in ion density. Bz stays negative for almost one day. Around 21Z there is a drop in density, followed by a drop in ion density, possibly indicating a flux rope. However, this arrival signature could also be from 2024-05-14T10:09Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-17T12:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-17T18:35Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40516
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 May 2024, 1258UT
SIDC FORECAST

Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) seen in SOHO/LASCO images as launched at 15 May 08:27 UTC is believed to be two separate CME originating from NOAA Active Regions (AR) 3670 and 3664. The first one is expected to arrive at Earth's environment on the second half on 17 May. The second is expected to deliver at most a glancing blow earlier the same day.
A CME that registered in SOHO/LASCO images as emitted at 14 May 18:36 UTC is associated with the X8.7 flare of 14 May and is expected to deliver a glancing blow during the second half of 17 May. Due to the expected arrival of the CME of 15 May at approximately the same time, this glancing blow might not be apparent.
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[Added Note from M2M Analyst Hannah Hermann: After careful comparison between SIDC notifications and the CMEs populated in DONKI (by M2M), I believe "the first one" which is "originating from Active Region 3670" corresponds to CME:2024-05-15T08:36Z in DONKI. Additionally, I believe "the second" CME "originating from Active Region 3664" corresponds to CME:2024-05-15T08:48Z in DONKI. Finally, I believe the CME "emitted at 14 May 18:36 UTC associated with the X8.7 flare" corresponds to CME:2024-05-14T17:30Z in DONKI.

Lead Time: 23.57 hour(s)
Difference: -5.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-05-16T13:06Z

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